Who Needs A Time Machine?

It's often said in politics, as well as other areas, that hindsight is 20/20 vision. The meaning is that when we see where we've ended up, it's sometimes obvious that we've taken the wrong turn somewhere.

 

It's usually the defence of the politician with egg on their face from whatever decision they made that has just been shown to be totally the wrong choice. More often than not, it can be a fair point. Knowing where you'll end up when you take a choice is typically guesswork to a greater or lesser extent.

 

Not only do you not know where you'll end up, you also usually have no way of knowing what would have happened had you done nothing or even remained on the same course. In this I am reminded of the tale sometimes titled "Appointment in Samarra":

 

A merchant in Baghdad sends his servant to the marketplace for provisions. Shortly, the servant comes home white and trembling and tells him that in the marketplace he was jostled by a woman, whom he recognized as Death, and she made a threatening gesture. Borrowing the merchant's horse, he flees at top speed to Samarra, a distance of about 75 miles (125 km), where he believes Death will not find him. The merchant then goes to the marketplace and finds Death, and asks why she made the threatening gesture. She replies, "That was not a threatening gesture, it was only a start of surprise. I was astonished to see him in Baghdad, for I had an appointment with him tonight in Samarra."

However, in the case of the UK Economy, we are indeed blessed with a map and other tools. You remember this don't you?

It's the display for the Time Circuits in the famous DeLorean time machine from the Back To The Future movies. It showed the time in the place you were heading to, the place where you are now, and the place where you were.

 

Now read this brilliant article from the New Yorker about Austerity Economics, if you haven't already. It explains that the US strategy compared to the UK strategy amounts to a natural experiment, with the simple conclusion: Austerity doesn't work. It's the Economic equivalent of the Emporer's New Clothes.

 

In our Back To The Future example, the place we left in 2010 was called "Economic Growth", the place where we are now in 2012 is "Triple-Dip City" and the place we are heading to, if we remain on the same path, is known as "Portugal".

 

I feel truly sorry for the Greek and Portuguese people. At least our austerity wounds were inflicted upon us by our own (admittedly, unelected) Government. The wounds that are bleeding Europe dry are mostly being inflicted by the German Government. In effect, the Germans are holding countries like Greece and Portugal to ransom. If this was being played out as a film script, it might go like this. Every week, the captor says "I will continue to feed you only if you cut off one of your fingers". What happens when the hostage has no more fingers remaining?