Are you sure about that?

Global warming. Guaranteed to divide opinion more quickly and effectively than almost any other issue. It's been an issue for a few years now and to me it doesn't seem any closer to consensus. There are huge legions of people on either side of the argument, both convinced they are right. It's becoming the new religion of the 21st Century.

Here in England, this winter has been largely mild, even exceptionally so. For a lot of the winter, even here on the Yorkshire coast, it's been around 8C (46F) which is unusually warm. This is the first time in four years (I think) that we've seen no snow here before Christmas.

On BBC Radio 4 this morning (@bbcr4today) there were guests discussing the number of different wild flower species that are already emerging, thinking that winter is over. Unfortunately, sometimes with a discussion such as this, it's clearly telegraphed where the conversation is headed. I waited and sure enough, the "elephant in the room" finally got it's mention. Global Warming. Cue some rather elementary statements about seasonal warming etc. Seems reasonable on the face of it, doesn't it?

The thing is, last winter (2010-11) we had an awful lot of snow, and it was the coldest I can ever remember. I saw -15C (5F) on several occasions and we had snow almost constantly from early December to the middle of January, if not even later. What were we told then? Oh yes, global warming. I am not a scientist, admittedly, but I really am struggling with this. So when it's really, I mean, really cold, that's because of global warming? And when it's really quite mild when it shouldn't be, that's global warming too? Hmmm.......

Now don't misunderstand me - I am not for one minute suggesting that we should abandon Kyoto or other such initiatives. It makes sense to me, no let me rephrase that; it seems obvious to me that we really should limit the amount of noxious substances that we put into the ground, water and air. It quite simply doesn't belong in the atmosphere and if it resulted in something harmful or unusual happening, then we ought not to be terribly surprised.

Having said that, the global climate went through some considerable changes long before the internal combustion engine or indeed any other form of industrialisation. So who's to say that any changes that we see now are anything to do with anything else?

All I'm saying is that I remain unconvinced that the model of global warming we are being sold at present is fully valid. But please stop chucking all that crap into the air.

Martin